Legislative elections 2024: Impact of the candidates’ proposals on the Energy sector.
Context
By deciding to dissolve the National Assembly on June 9, Emmanuel Macron triggered a speedy campaign. With just a few days left until the early legislative elections scheduled between June 30 and July 7, energy-related matters are receiving less focus in the programs of the major political parties.
Despite their often vague and incomplete nature, the primary proposals concerning energy vary significantly, highlighting distinct perspectives on the energy transition and France’s energy independence. Below is an overview of the main party proposals and their potential impact on the energy sector.
Ensemble (presidential majority)
The presidential majority is proposing a combination of nuclear and renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions:
1. Expansion of nuclear power
The party aims to build 14 new nuclear reactors to ensure France’s energy independence and move towards a carbon-free economy. Their construction will be accelerated by Law 2023-491 of 22 June 2023.
2. Development of renewable energies
The presidential majority plans to continue developing renewable energies so that 33% of the energy produced in France comes from renewable sources.
3. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions
In line with the targets set by the previous legislature, the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 has been maintained.
Les Républicains (LR)
Les Républicains have unveiled a program decisively focused on supporting the nuclear industry. This strategy is accompanied by proposals to lower the tax burden on electricity, particularly by abolishing the taxes currently funding the development of wind power.
1. Support for nuclear power
The LR’s program stresses the importance of maintaining and strengthening France’s nuclear fleet. The party calls for an immediate halt to the closure of existing nuclear power stations, a policy initiated by the current government. In addition, LR is proposing to extend the lifespan of existing reactors to 60 years. This measure, they argue, would guarantee the country’s energy stability while continuing to benefit from a low-carbon energy source. The Republicans are also committed to build new nuclear power stations.
2. Abolition of taxes on electricity
Les Républicains are proposing to abolish the electricity taxes that currently fund the development of wind power. According to les Républicains, the wind energy industry is now strong enough to do without this public funding.
These initiatives focus on the continuity of nuclear energy and the reduction of tax burdens.
Nouveau Front Populaire (Communists, LFI, Ecologists, PS)
The Nouveau Front Populaire focuses on renewable energies and social justice. Their program includes:
1.Development of renewable energies
The program includes the introduction of a climate plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Alongside insulating homes and renovating public buildings, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) plans to strengthen the French and European renewable energy production sectors and develop offshore wind and tidal power.
2.Uncertainty about nuclear power
The issue of nuclear power, a contentious topic on the left, is not mentioned in the NFP’s program. The plan is to postpone discussions on this subject until later parliamentary debates or to clarify its position in the context of its program for the next presidential election.
3. Zero funding for fossil fuels
The NFP proposes banning banks from financing fossil fuels for all new projects.
Rassemblement National (RN)
The Rassemblement National is proposing measures to strengthen France’s energy independence:
1. Building new nuclear reactors
As part of a nuclear plan “Marie Curie”, the RN plans to build ten new nuclear reactors from 2031, followed by a further ten from 2036. This plan is part of a long-term strategy to guarantee stable, low-carbon energy production
2. Moratorium on all new wind farm construction
The NR plans to introduce a moratorium on all new wind farm projects. On the other hand, unlike the program presented during the presidential election in 2022, the new programme no longer provides for the dismantling of existing wind farm projects.
3. Converting coal-fired power stations to biomass
The RN wants to end the use of coal-fired power stations by converting them to biomass power stations, which produce electricity from organic matter. This measure is accompanied by support for the development of green technologies such as hydrogen and geothermal energy.
4. Getting out from under European electricity pricing rules
The Rassemblement National’s program calls for an “end to European energy pricing rules that weaken competitiveness”. After evoking a French exit from the European electricity market, the RN is now considering negotiations with the European Commission to allow France to set national electricity prices, independently of current European regulations (Regulation (EU) 2019/943 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 June 2019 on the internal market in electricity).
Inspired by the “Iberian exception” put in place in Spain and Portugal during the 2022 energy crisis, which allowed them to derogate from European rules to cap the price of gas used to generate electricity, this initiative would make it possible to decouple the price of gas from other sources of electricity.
Conclusion
The forthcoming elections will be decisive for the future of the energy transition in France, given the divergent views of the various parties on the topic.
In any case, the election of a new National Assembly is already having an impact on the projects currently under development, given the uncertainty surrounding the legal framework that will apply to these projects. The dissolution of the National Assembly has halted all legislative work in progress, and it is possible that the newly elected MPs will not continue this work and will decide to take new directions in energy policy.
Meanwhile, these uncertainties should be explicitly addressed in the negotiations between the various parties involved in the development and financing of energy projects.
